This work was done during one weekend by research workshop participants and does not represent the work of Apart Research.
AI Governance Hackathon
Accepted at the 
AI Governance Hackathon
 research sprint on 
July 21, 2023

Catastrophic AGI Risk Prediction

We introduce a custom case scenario based on Open Philanthropy’s AI Worldviews Contest. We estimate a 48% probability of an existential catastrophe from the loss of control of an AGI system. Our approach suggests a starting point for forecasting AGI risk through a programmatic tool. Our future work will use the ITN framework to assign weights to a variety of independent variables within technical and governance research in order to improve the ability of forecasters to accurately predict the extent to which AGI existential catastrophe will occur within a given timeframe.

Mitchell Reynolds, Jon Menaster
4th place
3rd place
2nd place
1st place
 by peer review